Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape the powertrain strategies of OEMs over the next decade. This study provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. North America is adopting GHG regulations and will next focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium-term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India will shift from BS IV to BS VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; it will have a fuel efficiency regulation in place from 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases - 2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023.
These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced after treatment systems, and electrification. In addition, novel engine architecture such as opposed-piston engines, split-cycle engines, double compression expansion engines, and the Miller cycle will be explored to improve the brake thermal efficiency of diesel engines.
Falling battery prices, broader incentive policies, and charging infrastructure developments will boost the trend of electrification. Battery pack prices are expected to fall below $100 per kWh by 2023, with high battery production capacities of 250+ GWh globally. With growing battery availability and technology-readiness, fully electric vehicles will gain prominence and will be largely used across all regions by 2025. OEMs have also announced plans to manufacture electric trucks and range-extended powertrain. Fuel cell technology will gain prominence after 2022 due to the advantages of reduced component weight and packaging size.
North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain.
As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. Further, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from tier 1 engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes.
Research scope
The study aims to identify the major powertrain strategies that will be deployed by OEMs to meet forthcoming fuel efficiency and GHG regulations.
Research Highlights
Provide a strategic overview of the regional regulations that control emission and help to improve fuel efficiency and quality in North America, Europe, China, and India
Discuss the technology penetration of advanced powertrain technologies across rigid and tractor vehicles
Provide a technology outlook of the advanced diesel engine technologies used in HD vehicles
Furnish a strategic overview of electrification uptake across HD vehicles
Discuss powertrain outlook, penetration, and technology deep dive of global HD OEMs
Provide strategic recommendations and conclusions for OEMs in the HD truck market
Key Issues Addressed
What are the key tailpipe emission and fuel efficiency and economy regulations shaping the dynamics of the powertrain strategies of global OEMs?
What is the technology penetration of advanced power train technologies across rigid and tractor vehicles in North America, Europe, China, and India?
What is the technology outlook of advanced diesel engine technologies?
What are the key developments in terms of the electrification of global HD trucks?
What are the key powertrain strategies of global HD truck OEMs?
Key Topics Covered:
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Takeaways
Diesel Engine Powertrain Trends for 2025 and Beyond
HD Vehicle Emission Regulations Outlook
GHG/Fuel Economy Regulations Outlook
HD Truck Powertrain Overview
Diesel versus Electric Long-Haul Truck TCO Comparison
Global Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
Technology Penetration versus Region-Tractor Segment
Key OEM Diesel Powertrain Strategies
Regulatory Environment and OEM Compliance Strategy
2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
3. DEFINITIONS
Definitions of Key Technologies
4. GLOBAL EMISSION AND FUEL ECONOMY AND QUALITY REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
Global Regulations - Tailpipe and Fuel Economy and Quality
Global Tractor Truck Standards for CO2 Reduction
Global Emission Regulation Limits
Powertrain Technologies for Fuel Efficiency Improvements
Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential - Class 8 Line-Haul Tractor
Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential: Class 8 Line-Haul Tractor-Engine Technology
Technology Penetration versus Region - Tractor and Rigid
5. ADVANCED DIESEL ENGINE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
Engine Technology Packages and Effective Fuel Consumption Reduction
Technology Outlook - Waste Heat Recovery
Technology Outlook - Miller Cycle in Engines: Scania
Technology Outlook - Split Cycle Engine: Ricardo
Technology Outlook - Double Compression Expansion Engine: Volvo
Technology Outlook - Opposed Piston Engine: Achates Power
Technology Outlook - Multi-functional SCR - DPF After treatment Systems
Technology Outlook - 48V System Design
6. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK - NORTH AMERICA
Regulatory Environment - North America
GHG and Fuel Economy Standards - North America
CARB Ultra-Low NOx Regulations - Impact on Powertrain
North American Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
Ultra-Low Nox - Enabling Technologies
Technology Penetration - Rigid Trucks: North America
Technology Penetration - Tractor Trucks: North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers - North America
7. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK - EUROPE
Regulatory Environment - Europe
HD Vehicle CO2 Standards - Europe
European Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
Technology Penetration - Rigid Trucks: Europe
Technology Penetration - Tractor Trucks: Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers - Europe
8. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK - CHINA
Regulatory Environment - China
China's Fuel Efficiency Standards
Chinese Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
Technology Penetration - Rigid Trucks: China
Technology Penetration - Tractor Trucks: China
OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers - China
9. POWERTRAIN REGULATORY AND TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK - INDIA
Regulatory Environment - India
Fuel Consumption Standards - India
Indian Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
Technology Penetration - Rigid Trucks: India
Technology Penetration - Tractor Trucks: India
OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers - India
10. PROGRESSION OF ELECTRIFICATION TECHNOLOGY
Electric HD Market Outlook of Key Regions - 2025
Global Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) Adoption Perspective
Global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption Perspective
Global Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Adoption Perspective
OEM New Dedicated Platforms - Powertrain Flexibility Comparison
11. GLOBAL OEM POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES - POWERTRAIN STRATEGY: AB VOLVO
12. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - NAVISTAR, INC.
13. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - VW GROUP (MAN SE)
14. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - VW GROUP (SCANIA)
15. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - PACCAR INC.
16. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - DAIMLER AG
17. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - CUMMINS INC
18. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - IVECO
19. POWERTRAIN STRATEGYASHOK LEYLAND
20. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - TATA MOTORS
21. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - ISUZU MOTORS LIMITED
22. POWERTRAIN STRATEGY - HINO MOTORS, LTD.
23. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPANIES TO ACTION
Growth Opportunity - Breakthrough Trends and Companies
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