NIESR: Britain to avoid recession in Q3

Thursday, 10. October 2019 14:07

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research came out on Thursday with an even more optimistic forecast for the United Kingdom's economic growth after upward revisions alleviated fears of a second quarterly contraction in a row. Gross domestic product is seen rising by 0.5% in the three months through September and 0.3% after that, according to its calculations, translating to a 1.3% rate for the whole year.

Statistics showed slightly stronger growth in the quarter ending with August than the institute expected. Manufacturing is seen weakening further though output in total it could land the same as in the "very weak" previous comparable period, the document reveals. However, the segment should drop 0.9% in the fourth quarter, it added.

"The strongest source of private sector demand is household consumption, driven by real wage growth, but this is not sustainable without a pick-up in productivity growth, and this seems unlikely in the near term," said Garry Young, NIESR's head of modeling and forecasting.

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